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Cal will take a step back this season, despite its steady rise to relevancy in not just the Pac-12, but the national college football landscape.
The reason is this, spoken at roughly 5:15 p.m. pacific time: “With the first pick in the 2016 NFL draft the Los Angeles Rams take University of California quarterback Jared Goff.”
It’s that simple. Goff is no longer a Golden Bear of California. California, therefore, will not be very good.
But what, you may ask, about the 22 Ohio State players who declared for the draft? Or the annual mass exodus of Alabama stars? Or the NFL conveyor belt that has become Florida State?
The difference between those programs and Cal is both twofold and obvious. One, Cal is not Ohio State or Alabama or Florida State. It’s Cal, a program that recently enjoyed its first winning season since 2011, and even then the Bears went a modest 7-5.
They can’t reload like the bluebloods of college football can.
And two: There may have been no player more valuable to their team than Goff was to Cal last season, or the past three, for that matter.
When Goff was a freshman, he was the first true freshman to start a season opener in Cal history. He proved more than capable, setting single season records for passing yards (3,508), yardage gained (3,508), total offense (3,446), passes completed (320) and passes attempted (521).
Cal finished 1-11.
That’s how Goff’s career went: garish numbers succeeded by lousy team performances. Even in his junior season, in which he broke conference records for passing yards (4,714) and touchdowns (43), the Bears still failed to beat a single decent team, unless you count Texas as decent, and even then, it took a botched extra point to pull off.
So where does Cal go, now that Goff is playing on Sundays?
Backwards. Significantly so.
The only redeeming factor of the Bears replacing their quarterback is that half of the Pac-12 is currently undergoing the same volatile process. USC hasn’t named a starter. Neither has Stanford or Arizona. Oregon is relying on another FCS transfer. Cal, however, is in a far different situation.
Cal is replacing arguably the best player, statistically speaking, to ever don a Bear jersey, better, even, than Aaron Rodgers.
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Coach Sonny Dykes now turns his head to not two, but four candidates for the starting job in sophomore Chase Forrest, redshirt freshman Ross Bowers, senior Zach Kline, and true freshman Max Gilliam.
Prior to the spring game, it was reported that Bowers and Forrest were the front runners – until Kline went 15-16, making it a three-man race for the job.
It all comes down to what Dykes prioritizes when looking for a quarterback. If experience is key, Kline is the no-brainer. He competed with Goff for the starting job in 2013, a battle he obviously lost. He then transferred to Butte College, previous stomping grounds of Rodgers before he played for Cal, and spent another at Indiana State before returning.
If it’s in-game experience with Cal, it might be Forrest, who won the backup job in 2015 and appeared briefly in mop-up duty.
If it’s sheer accuracy, perhaps it’s Bowers, who has been lauded all spring for his precision and decision making.
At the end of the day, however, Cal will be taking a step back. Replacing Goff is no easy task, just as replacing Rodgers wasn’t. Whoever steps in will be doing so with a depleted receiving corps that lost its six top pass catchers.
The extended future is bright, as Dykes has been recruiting well and changing the perception of California football.
For now, however, the only Bear with an auspicious upcoming season is Goff.
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